Civil conflicts and Global Climate correlate

Planetary-scale climate changes are directly associated with global patterns of civil conflict by examining the dominant interannual mode of the modern climate, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Historians have argued that ENSO may have driven global patterns of civil conflict in the distant past, a hypothesis that is extended to the modern era and tested quantitatively. Using data from 1950 to 2004 it is shown that the probability of new civil conflicts arising throughout the tropics doubles during El Niño years relative to La Niña years.

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