A method for calculating mass-balance changes of ice-sheets is developed. Antarctica contributes negatively to sea level rise on account of increased accumulation, while Greenland contributes positively. The uncertainty in the results is about 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland. An annual- and area-average global warming exceeding 3.1 +/- 0.8 degrees results in an average global sea level rise by 7 m.
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